Cold? Seriously, Cold???

Cold? Seriously, Cold???

- in Moos Room
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@Moos

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If I ever get out of the ‘Wonderful World of Sales’ I may just turn to a career in, um, I dunno, perhaps, one having to do with ‘Science’!  Just think of it, I could be a SCIENTIST, a real, honest-to-goodness-scientist sporting a wicked-cool white lab coat, a pocket protector, eleven pens (seven of which would actually write), protective goggles AND a clip board!

Dr. M. Moos, PhD

Yup, you got the idea. 

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Unfortunately, as I ponder future career choices, I realize that the field of Science is serious business, and while I’m all about business in Sales, I’m not so much into the ‘serious’ thing.  For example, how could I, with a straight face, make the following ‘Scientific Prediction’:

 

Winter is Coming: Scientist Says Sun Will Nod Off in 15 Years 

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Might want to start stockpiling those down jackets: The sun could nod off by 2030, triggering what scientists are describing as a “mini ice age.”
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Professor Vlentina Zharkova of Northumbira University presented the frigid findings at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales. Modern technology has made us able to predict solar cycles with much greater accuracy, and Zharkova’s model predicts that solar activity will drop by more than half between 2030 and 2040.

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In search of a more accurate system of prediction, Professor Zharkova and her team discovered fluctuating magnetic waves in two layers of the sun. By studying the data of the dual waves, she says, predictions are far more precise.

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“Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent,” said Zharkova, whose findings were published by the Royal Astronomic Society.

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Using this method, she and her team discovered that there will be far less solar activity in sun cycles 25 and 26, leading to a prolonged period of solar dormancy

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“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other — peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. 

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It last occurred between 1645 and 1715, when roughly 50 sunspots were recorded, as opposed to the standard 40,000. That time was marked by brutal, river-freezing temperatures in Europe and North America.  [Moos Note:  Who, exactly, was documenting the number of sunspots between 1645 and 1715?  I’m pretty sure that it wasn’t the professor referenced above as she was not even a ‘gleam in the eye’ of her great, great, great, great, great grandparents…]

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Okay, I don’t know about you, but the last thing I heard about our ‘Big Blue Marble’ is that it is destined for a steady rise in temperatures (seas boil), crops will bake in the fields (Yumm-o!  Ready to eat Pop Corn on the cob!), and incomprehensible numbers of polar bears will drown as they endlessly tread ice-free Artic waters.  NOW, according to the scientist quoted above – within fifteen years, we’re all going to be plunged into a mini-ice-age?

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Sure, why not?  One theory is as good as another, right?  

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You see, here’s the thing – scientific theory MUST ‘by definition’ be based upon a predictive premise which must test said theory.  And when your predicting the ‘End of Life’ as we all know it, you’d better have your facts straight (a.k.a.:  Getting your water-fowl linear).   

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According to the nice, faceless folks at Wikipedia, Scientific Theory is defined this way:

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SCIENTIFIC THEORY:  A scientific theory is a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world that is acquired through the scientific method and repeatedly tested and confirmed through observation and experimentation. As with most (if not all) forms of scientific knowledge, scientific theories are inductive in nature and aim for predictive power and explanatory capability.
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Scientific theories are testable and make falsifiable predictions. They describe the causal elements responsible for a particular natural phenomenon, and are used to explain and predict aspects of the physical universe or specific areas of inquiry (e.g., electricity, chemistry, astronomy). Scientists use theories as a foundation to gain further scientific knowledge, as well as to accomplish goals such as inventing technology or curing disease.

Scientific theories are the most reliable, rigorous, and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge. 

This is significantly different from the common usage of the word “theory”, which implies that something is a conjecture, hypothesis, or guess (i.e., unsubstantiated and speculative). .  

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By expansion of Bill Nye’s quote above, we can safely say the following:

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  • If it’s Magic, it’s NOT Science
  • If it’s Science, it’s NOT Magic
  • If two morons walk along a train trestle high above a river and one falls into the river below – it’s because ONE was a little ‘moron’ than the other
  • If the Science is weak, maybe it actually might be ‘Magic’?

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I read Time Magazine’s dire admonition that we were entering a period of ‘Global Cooling’ back in the 1970’s.  I was equally horrified to learn twenty+ years later that the ‘very real threat’ we faced was NOT of mid-1970’s-era Global Cooling, but rather, a very dire prediction of… Global Warming.

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This Global Warming phrase was later changed to ‘Global Climate Change’ because it was easier to sell a concept which, roughly translated, means, “Yup, that weather sure does change from time to time.”  

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Unfortunately for those ‘Climate Changer’ folks, NASA discovered that there was a seventeen year period in which no Warming trend was detected in annual Earth Temperatures – explained scientifically as ‘global Climate Pause‘. 

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Now, just in time for a new generation – we return to the mid-1970’s when Liberal Democrats / Moderate Republicans run DC, radical Islamists are at war with us (but very few in Washington realize it), we sit anxiously awaiting for those new ‘Star Wars’ and ‘Rocky’ movies to be released, unemployment is below 7.7%, and we are STILL so very cool, but our parents simply don’t understand us.  

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Looking back I realize that maybe, just maybe, it is the Magic that is real, and that ‘Real’ Science isn’t what it used to be.  

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Personally, I see magic every day.  I see it in my family, in strangers who begin their lunch at McDonald’s offering thanks before eating, and in the general goodness of the people I see helping others – not because they HAVE to, but rather, because they WANT to.  

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As for Science – well, I believe that once a theory is proven if moves from the status of  Scientific Theory to Scientific Fact.  If the ‘Science’ changes every few decades, it’s not Fact, it is merely a Theory.  But like I said at the onset, I’m no scientist.

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Perhaps Bill Nye is actually full of ‘Hooey’.  I don’t know about you, but based upon the ‘Science’ we’re presented with online and in the Media on a regular basis, I’m getting suspect of the endless barrage of crises about tomorrow’s weather, tomorrow’s crisis,and and tomorrow’s Liberal / Moderate solutions.

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Perhaps we need to rediscover the joy found in living… ‘today’?  

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I believe that you (and I) will be happier for it.  

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Now THERE is a Theory for you.  And, you know, I’m no Scientist. 

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Facebook Comments

  • Moos.. Great article.. as always.

    Wish you had the time to write regularly again

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The following was originally posted December 7, 2012